I was gonna write a long screed about the state of the economy, but after a pass through the mainstream press today, particularly the New York Times, I was overwhelmed by the stupidity of the journalistic community.
Before getting to that, here’s the skinny on the economy…remember back in November when the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) told us we’d been in a recession since December of 2007 and all of us were, like, “no shit…it took you 11 months to piece that together?”
Okay…sometime in June the same rocket scientists are gonna tell us we entered a depression in November of 2008. Trust me. It’s coming. There are various mathematical indicators that lead me to this conclusion and I’ll go into them in a later post just for the geeks that care about such things…but the biggest leading indicator is that rich guys are throwing themselves in front of trains or off ledges or whatever. When rich guys (and by rich I mean worth 100’s of millions or billions) start killing themselves specifically because they are now poor, the economic shit has officially hit the fan…which is as good a description of a depression as any other I’ve come across.
On to journalistic idiocy…
Toxic Assets: Okay…can we kill this term? Please? No, really, I’m begging. It’s such a wonderfully misleading mix of drama (Toxic…poisonous…a cloud over a suburb that kills small children and the elderly) and sideways passive voice let ‘em all off the hook crap. It sounds like there’s something inherently wrong with the asset. “See that house over yonder, Clem? Fucker’s toxic.” Let’s call these things what they are: bad loans; bad investments; bad choices. Toxic assets makes it sounds like some unsuspecting friendly neighborhood banker gave someone a loan for a commercial building and it turned out to be riddled with asbestos. It wasn’t. Only thing wrong with the building is that there were too goddamn many buildings and not enough people to put in ‘em. Bad. Fucking. Loan. Which changes the image in one’s head to smugly arrogant 30 something Manhattan investment banker buying up a bunch of loan packages he didn’t really understand, making a few million a year, and then looking kinda confused and as dumb as he actually is when it all crashed down around his ears.
Nationalization: Oh, sweet Jesus. The Paper of Record ran an article today with the headline “Rescue of Banks Hints at Nationalization”. Fuck me. Just fuck me now. No. It does not hint at nationalization. The government taking a 6% ownership stake in Bank of America in exchange for somewhere in the neighborhood of $120 Billion is not nationalization. It’s a bailout of a bunch of fuckups. In exchange for bailing out a bunch of fuckups who put the entire national economy at risk through their poor choices, the government, like any owner, makes a few demands. That’s not nationalization. Nationalization would be the government taking over the bank, all of it, with little or no compensation to the shareholders, and running the damn thing. There is no “hint” of nationalization in this. But…they found some bonehead banking analyst who said…
“We are down a path that this country has not seen since Andrew Jackson shut down the Second National Bank of the United States,” said Gerard Cassidy, a banking analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “We are going to go back to a time when the government controlled the banking system.”
Um…no. We’re going to nothing like that. We’re going to an era where the government is bailing out jackasses like Gerard (hey, Gerry…did you see this recession/depression coming? I just combed through some of your analyst reports and it appears you thought shit was doing just fine…so forgive me if I think I don’t need to pay attention to you ’cause you’re kinda dumb) and taking a radically undervalued ownership stake just so jackasses like Gerard can’t pull all of us down the tubes with them. Ain’t nothing being nationalized up in here. What’s happening is the government is taking on the risks that the financial institutions shouldn’t have taken on in the first place. The nationalization talk is a way of subtly applying political pressure in the form of “don’t start making demands in exchange for your ownership stake” that would result in a giveaway to these institutions with no limits on what they can do with it or how they can operate…no other major shareholder would accept those kind of limitations. The government shouldn’t.
Other Passive Voice Abominations: The one that’s up my ass today is referring to financial institutions that talk about large banks that cannot function as “the sinking economy erodes their capital”. Again…passive voice bullshit. It’s like the economy is sinking on its own…as if some weird form of gravity heretofore unknown to us has grabbed hold of the economy and is pulling down into quicksand. The sinking economy that is eroding their capital is entirely of their own making. Take away the housing and commercial property bubbles, the easy credit, the credit to people who shouldn’t have been given credit, the utter lack of fiscal responsibility, the buying and selling of debt instruments that the buyers and sellers didn’t understand, the huge upswing in risk profiles of these institutions and the greed of executives and shareholders that looked the other way, and you don’t have a fucking sinking economy.
Thank you for letting me vent.